[R&E] KOSPI Nears 5,300, a Prelude to an 'Export Super Cycle' Driven by AI Infrastructure and Heavy Industry

[R&E: Research & Epoch]

This is News Epoch's signature report, offering a perspective on a new era of investment through the analysis of extensive market data.

Market Overview: Key Indicators and Trends

The New York stock market closed higher as bargain hunting flowed into technology-centric stocks. In particular, AI infrastructure-related stocks such as Oracle (NYSE: ORCL) and NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) showed strength, pushing the NASDAQ index up by 0.90%, while the S&P 500 also rose by 0.47%, adding warmth to the market. This external environment acted as an explosive catalyst for the domestic stock market on the previous trading day. Bolstered by strong net buying from both foreigners and institutions, the KOSPI recorded 5,298.04 (+4.10%), performing a spectacular feat by surging right below the 5,300 mark. The KOSDAQ also closed with a sharp rise to 1,127.55 (+4.33%) due to improved supply and demand dynamics across the entire AI value chain.

Today's market raises the possibility of taking a breather following the previous day's surge, but a drop in offshore exchange rates and stable bond yield flows are expected to secure downward rigidity. The KRW/USD exchange rate is expected to start in the high 1,450 won range, down from the previous day, creating a favorable environment for the inflow of foreign supply and demand. In particular, with expectations for Samsung Electronics' HBM4 shipments and a series of announcements regarding shareholder return policies by major companies, analysts suggest that the index itself has entered a phase of leaping to a new level.

Key Industry Issues and Insights

The differentiation in performance between traditional and high-tech industries is becoming distinct. The shipbuilding and defense sectors have entered a stage of qualitative leap beyond quantitative growth. HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering recorded an operating profit of 1.0379 trillion won in the fourth quarter, achieving an outstanding result that surged 108.0% year-on-year. This is the result of an improvement in the construction proportion of high-value-added LNG carriers coupled with exchange rate effects. Hanwha Aerospace also recorded 8.33 trillion won in sales, a 72.6% increase, despite the reflection of one-off costs. Based on an order backlog of more than 50 trillion won, securing medium- to long-term growth potential is certain.

In the financial sector, a phenomenon was observed where future-oriented investment performances drove earnings. Mirae Asset Securities achieved an earnings surprise with a controlling shareholder net income of 577.3 billion won (+113.0%) as valuation gains of more than 1 trillion won in global innovative companies such as xAI and SpaceX were reflected. This suggests that the securities industry's revenue model has completely transitioned from traditional brokerage business to global investment banking (IB) investments. On the other hand, the construction industry sees Daewoo E&C focusing on constitutional improvement, such as preemptively resolving overseas plant and domestic unsold housing risks by carrying out a large-scale non-performing asset clean-up worth 1.1 trillion won.

In the IT and semiconductor sectors, technological superiority is translating directly into earnings. Samsung Electronics materialized its plan for the first mass production of HBM4, raising the possibility of achieving a first-quarter operating profit of 28.8 trillion won. In the materials, parts, and equipment sector, BH recorded an operating profit of 28.8 billion won through expanding its OLED market share within its North American client, exceeding market expectations by 11.4%. In the retail sector, Shinsegae achieved an operating profit of 172.5 billion won, a 66.5% surge year-on-year, driven by the recovery of its main department store business and the turnaround to surplus in its duty-free shops, proving a gradual recovery trend in domestic consumption.

Market Signals

• KOSPI Nears Breaking 5,300 Mark: With simultaneous buying from foreigners and institutions, the index reached 5,298.04. This is analyzed as the result of the combination of the corporate value enhancement program and AI momentum.

• Securities Industry Earnings Surprise Relay: Entry into an asset value re-evaluation phase is evident, with NH Investment & Securities recording a net income of 283.5 billion won (+157.7%) and Mirae Asset Securities posting 577.3 billion won (+113.0%).

• Precious Metals Market Strength: Driven by preference for safe assets and a weak dollar, gold prices recovered the $5,000 level for the first time in two weeks. This implies that demand for inflation hedging continues.

Epoch View: Investment Implications

The current market is in a phase where an earnings-based fundamental market and a value enhancement market that emphasizes shareholder returns coexist. The overwhelming increase in profitability shown by HD Hyundai Electric and HD Hyundai Marine Engine signifies that the mega-trend of North American infrastructure replacement demand is becoming a reality. In particular, the fact that HD Hyundai Marine Engine's margin rate rose to 22.7% is strong evidence that rising engine sales prices are driving the profitability of the entire shipbuilding value chain.

From a strategic perspective, a contrarian approach of selecting blue-chip stocks whose share prices have fallen due to the reflection of temporary costs is valid. In the case of Krafton, despite sluggish earnings caused by one-off costs, the company supported its stock price bottom by announcing a plan to retire 700 billion won worth of treasury shares over three years. Daewoo E&C's shift to a deficit also leaves ample room to be interpreted as a resolution of negative factors, as it preemptively blocked the possibility of additional costs occurring in the future. In conclusion, even amidst macroeconomic uncertainty, it is essential to strategize by concentrating portfolios on sectors with solid order backlogs and technological barriers to entry.

This content was generated by News Epoch's proprietary AI algorithm, which tracks and analyzes public data from research centers of major domestic securities firms in real time.
Please note that this is an objective summary based on collected data, and it is not an investment solicitation or recommendation for any specific stock.