[R&E] Semiconductor-led KOSPI Surpasses 5,500 Amid Mixed New York Stock Market: Super Gap Rally Driven by HBM4

[R&E: Research & Epoch]
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Market Overview: Key Indicators and Trends

The New York stock market closed lower the previous day as concerns over the profitability of the AI industry coincided with tightening caution triggered by strong employment data. The S&P 500 index fell by 1.34%, and the Nasdaq dropped by 2.03%. In particular, Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) plunged by 5.0%, dampening overall investor sentiment for technology stocks. As the number of nonfarm payrolls in January recorded a surprise increase of 130,000, the probability of a rate freeze in March soared to 95%, resulting in pushing the 10-year US Treasury yield up to the 4.172% level.

On the other hand, the domestic stock market on the previous trading day rallied to a new high, surpassing the KOSPI 5,522.27 mark, driven by a record surge in large-cap semiconductor stocks. With foreigners and institutions continuing their net buying for four consecutive trading days, news of Micron's HBM4 mass production acted as a catalyst, drawing strong buying pressure across the entire domestic semiconductor ecosystem. The KRW/USD exchange rate also closed at 1,439.4 won, down 7.3 won from the previous day, creating a favorable environment for capital inflow. The key for today's market is to what extent the earnings visibility of domestic semiconductors can defend against the aftermath of the technology stock correction originating from New York.

Key Industry Issues and Insights

The semiconductor sector has moved beyond the stage of a full recovery in the memory industry conditions and entered a super-gap phase. Samsung Electronics surged 6.44% on the combined expectations of HBM4 mass production and the forecast of an upward turn in foundry utilization rates, while SK hynix also rose 3.26%, driving the index. In particular, the fact that Japan's Kioxia skyrocketed 21% in after-hours trading by presenting earnings guidance that exceeded market expectations suggests that the memory semiconductor supply shortage will continue until 2026. Back-end processing and substrate companies such as TLB also proved their solid fundamentals as their operating profit surged by 816% year-on-year due to the expansion of the DDR5 proportion for servers.

The AI infrastructure and power industries are proving their growth potential with actual order data. Doosan achieved a spectacular performance, recording a fourth-quarter operating profit of 131.9 billion won, an increase of 194% year-on-year, driven by strong demand for copper clad laminates for AI servers. The US-based Vertiv Holdings (NYSE: VRT) also saw new orders explode by 252% year-on-year, confirming that the expansion of AI data center infrastructure is not a temporary fad but a massive industrial transition. Conversely, the secondary battery sector shows distinct differentiation by stock. Although EcoPro Materials succeeded in turning a profit in the fourth quarter, sparking hopes of a rebound, a selective approach is essential as concerns over stagnant lithium prices and slowing downstream demand persist.

Major momentum is being captured in the entertainment and energy sectors. HYBE saw its fourth-quarter profit plummet due to the reflection of North American restructuring costs, but secured mid-to-long-term growth engines as BTS's full-group comeback in 2026 and plans for a world tour of 5.12 million people materialized. HD Hyundai solidified its position as a bellwether in the heavy industry sector by achieving an earnings surprise of 1.97 trillion won in fourth-quarter operating profit, owing to improved refining margins and strong power infrastructure.

Market Signals

• Semiconductor Super Gap: Micron's forecast of an HBM4 supply shortage and Kioxia's 21% after-hours surge due to upward revisions in its earnings forecast suggest a continuation of the semiconductor-led market rally.

• Earnings-Based Differentiation: The concentration of supply and demand around companies with strong performances, such as Doosan with a 194% increase in operating profit and NHN with a 120.5% increase, is expected to intensify.

• Macroeconomic Volatility: The reflection of a 95% probability for a March rate freeze following strong US January employment data signifies a prolonged high-interest-rate environment, which is certain to act as a limiting factor on the upside for technology stocks.

Epoch View: Investment Implications

The current market appears to be tackling the uncertainty of macro indicators head-on with industry-specific order backlogs and earnings guidelines. The KOSPI's stable settlement above the 5,500 level goes beyond a simple index rise; it means that the global competitiveness of Korea's core industries, namely semiconductors, shipbuilding, and power infrastructure, is being re-evaluated. While the technology stock correction in the New York stock market is deemed a healthy process to relieve valuation pressure, the sluggishness of hardware companies like Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) is a signal to be wary of.

Therefore, rather than reacting sensitively to the fluctuations of the index, an effective strategy at present is to focus on stocks experiencing surging order backlogs as direct beneficiaries of AI infrastructure expansion, such as Vertiv Holdings (NYSE: VRT) and Doosan. Furthermore, for sectors that have overcome short-term earnings sluggishness and possess certain earnings rebound momentum for 2026, like HYBE, an approach from a buy-on-dips perspective is reasonable. As the timing of interest rate cuts is delayed, it is time to reorganize portfolios centered on large-cap value stocks and earnings growth stocks with low debt ratios and excellent cash flows.

This content was generated by News Epoch's proprietary AI algorithm, which tracks and analyzes public data from research centers of major domestic securities firms in real-time.
It is an objective summary based on collected data and does not constitute a solicitation or recommendation for investment in any specific stock.