[R&E] 221.5% Explosive Growth in Semiconductor Exports and the AI Benefit Market... Return of Fundamentals Overwhelming Macro Fears

[R&E: Research & Epoch]

This is News Epoch's signature report, offering a perspective on a new era of investment by analyzing vast market data.

Market Overview: Key Indicators and Trends

The U.S. stock market on the previous day closed lower as uncertainties surrounding the Trump administration's introduction of universal tariffs coincided with profitability concerns among AI software companies. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSE: DJI) fell by 1.66%, and the NASDAQ (NASDAQ: IXIC) also dropped by 1.13%, dampening overall market sentiment.

In particular, following the launch of Anthropic's new AI tool, the decline in the cybersecurity and software sectors was notable, including CrowdStrike (NASDAQ: CRWD) (-9.8%) and Datadog (NASDAQ: DDOG) (-11.3%). This is the result of the materialization of the 'AI disruption theory,' which suggests AI could encroach upon the existing software market. On the other hand, Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) (+0.9%), which holds a hardware advantage, showed a solid trend, highlighting a clear differentiation within the industry.

The domestic stock market on the previous day experienced a relief rally following news of a court ruling declaring the U.S. tariff policy unconstitutional. Despite massive net selling of 1.1 trillion won by foreign investors, the KOSPI closed at 5,846.09, up 0.65%, supported by institutional defense. Conversely, the KOSDAQ showed a mixed trend, dropping 0.17% to 1,151.99.

The KRW/USD exchange rate showed a slight downward stabilization to 1,443.1 won as tariff concerns eased, but a preference for safe assets remains underlying the market, as evidenced by the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield falling from the 4.031% level. Today's market is expected to see a strong wait-and-see approach ahead of the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index release, but overwhelming export data centered on semiconductors is poised to secure downward rigidity.

Key Industry Issues and Insights

The semiconductor sector has entered a period of structural explosion beyond simple industry recovery. According to tentative export figures from February 1 to 20, memory semiconductor exports surged by 221.5% year-on-year to $9.55 billion. In particular, the unit price increases for DRAM (+261.4%) and flash memory (+338.0%) have been steep, resulting from the rapid rise in demand for general server DRAM driven by the spread of inference AI coupled with the high growth of HBM.

The upward revision of target prices for Samsung Electronics (KS: 005930) and SK Hynix (KS: 000660) is backed by the revaluation of memory following the introduction of AI agents. In particular, the analysis that the proportion of servers and HBM within DRAM demand will reach 43% in 2026 suggests that memory semiconductors have transformed from cyclical stocks into high-growth stocks.

Earnings visibility in the defense and aerospace sectors is also becoming more advanced. Korea Aerospace Industries (KS: 047810) appears to be solidifying its position as a leading stock by providing an aggressive earnings guidance for 2026 of 5.5 trillion won in revenue (+49.6%) and 494.6 billion won in operating profit (+83.7%). This means it has entered a stage where the expansion of market share for Korean weapon systems is proven by tangible figures amid a global arms buildup trend.

On the other hand, the financial sector is showing a mixed trend. Profit volatility in the insurance industry has expanded, with Hanwha Life Insurance (KS: 088350) turning to a net loss of 2.5 billion won in the fourth quarter, and Hyundai Marine & Fire Insurance (KS: 001450) also recording a net loss of 73 billion won due to the reflection of one-off expenses. However, if shareholder return policies, such as share cancellation, are strengthened following the passage of the Commercial Act amendment by the Legislation and Judiciary Committee, the stock price resilience of low PBR financial stocks is highly likely to remain effective.

Market Signals

• Soaring memory semiconductor export unit prices: In early February, memory export unit prices rose by 193.9% year-on-year, entering a phase of unprecedented profitability improvement. In particular, the simultaneous rise in DRAM unit prices (+230.0%) and flash unit prices (+510.8%) is a powerful momentum for the semiconductor sector.

• Strong likelihood of surging operating profit for KAI in 2026: Korea Aerospace Industries (KS: 047810)'s operating profit for 2026 is analyzed to reach 494.6 billion won, an 83.7% increase year-on-year, reaffirming the mid-to-long-term growth potential of the defense sector.

• Persistent foreign selling in the domestic stock market: On the previous trading day, foreign investors net sold 1.1 trillion won in the KOSPI market, appearing to focus on risk management. Supply and demand instability resulting from tariff policy uncertainties is highly likely to act as a short-term volatility factor.

Epoch View: Investment Implications

The current market is in a phase where external uncertainties, specifically the Trump-induced tariff risk, are colliding head-on with fundamental strength characterized by a surge in semiconductor exports. While the court ruling declaring the U.S. tariff policy unconstitutional provided short-term relief, it should be noted that the universal tariff risk has not been completely resolved. During such times, it is essential to focus on the hardware and infrastructure sectors, which occupy an actual supplier-dominated market, rather than the software sector, which is sensitive to external variables.

In particular, the rise in memory semiconductor unit prices and the explosive growth in export volume are core drivers firmly supporting the profit downside of the domestic stock market. In a situation where excess data center demand continues, it is necessary to pay attention to strong small and medium-sized enterprises within the supply chain, such as Neotis (KOSDAQ: 085910), which is expected to benefit from PCB supply shortages, alongside large-cap stocks.

Furthermore, rather than financial stocks with high earnings volatility, a strategy of expanding weight in the defense and offshore wind power sectors, which demonstrate definitive growth based on order backlogs, is effective. In conclusion, the only alternative to overcoming macroeconomic uncertainty is the sustainability of performance proven by figures.

This content was generated by News Epoch's proprietary AI algorithm, which tracks and analyzes public data from research centers of major domestic securities firms in real time. It is an objective summary based on collected data and does not constitute an investment solicitation or recommendation for specific stocks.