[R&E] Collision between Energy Panic and the Golden Age of AI… Semiconductor ‘Super Gap in Earnings’ Clear Amidst 8.5% Surge in Crude Oil

[R&E: Research & Epoch]
This is News Epoch's signature report that analyzes vast amounts of market data to forecast a new era of investment.

Market Summary: Key Indicators and Trends

The New York stock market closed lower the previous day as geopolitical risks in the Middle East fully materialized. Following reports of an attack on an Iranian oil tanker and strikes on oil refinery facilities, supply chain anxiety overwhelmed the market, with WTI crude oil exceeding $82 during intraday trading. Consequently, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 1.61%, and the 10-year US Treasury yield soared to 4.136% due to concerns over reigniting inflation.

In contrast, the domestic stock market on the previous trading day staged a record-breaking rally, driven by news of the creation of a 100 trillion won stock market stabilization fund and strong bargain hunting following excessive declines. The KOSPI rose 9.63% to 5,583.90, and the KOSDAQ climbed 14.10% to 1,116.41, presenting an unusual scene where a sidecar was activated. In particular, Samsung Electronics surged 11.27%, leading the index's rise.

Today's market is expected to experience increased volatility as fatigue from the previous day's overheated gains in the domestic stock market coincides with the weakness in the New York stock market. In particular, the fact that the KRW/USD exchange rate soared to 1,483.2 won, strengthening risk aversion sentiment, is highly likely to exert downward pressure on foreign supply and demand. However, a selective approach focusing on the semiconductor and energy sectors, which have secured robust earnings visibility even amidst the geopolitical crisis, remains valid.

Key Industry Issues and Insights

The semiconductor industry has broken through macroeconomic uncertainties and entered a phase of overwhelming profit growth. SK hynix presented its annual operating profit forecast for 2026 at 170 trillion won, proving momentum that exceeds market expectations. In particular, due to the explosion in demand for eSSDs for AI, sales of SiC focus rings by TCK are surging rapidly, which is expected to lead to a 59% increase in operating profit in the first quarter compared to the previous quarter. Hanwha Vision has also succeeded in developing hybrid bonding equipment capable of supporting 16-20 layer HBM, and the prevailing analysis is that its operating profit will grow by more than 110% year-on-year in 2027.

The energy sector has entered the early stages of 'energy inflation,' where supply shortage issues drive price increases. Concerns over Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz caused the JKM price to surge by 42.5% in just one week. In this phase, SK gas, which has a high proportion of US LPG procurement, and SGC Energy, whose power generation margins improve when oil prices rise, are emerging as market alternatives. Conversely, a conservative perspective is essential for Korea Electric Power Corporation, which suffers from the double whammy of high oil prices and high exchange rates, due to its increased cost burden.

In addition, the secondary battery sector should pay attention to the steep growth of the ESS market driven by the expansion of data center power grids. L&F is showing visible signs of a turnaround to a surplus of 120 billion won through its exclusive selection for ultra-high nickel cathode materials destined for Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA). In the retail sector, Coupang (NYSE: CPNG) has temporarily seen its growth slow due to personal information issues, but its first-quarter revenue growth rate is judged to rebound again, and Lotte Hi-Mart, which is undergoing structural improvements, is also expected to make 2026 the first year of its earnings rebound.

Market Signals

• Realization of Energy Inflation: In the aftermath of Middle East risks, WTI crude oil at $81.01 (8.51% surge) and JKM (42.5% surge) rose simultaneously, heightening the supply chain crisis.

• Expansion of Semiconductor Earnings Visibility: AI benefits are materializing in earnest, such as SK hynix's 2026 operating profit forecast of 170 trillion won and TCK's expected first-quarter operating profit of 29.4 billion won (59% surge from the previous quarter).

• Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Volatility: A warning of foreign capital outflow due to a deteriorating macro environment, including the KRW/USD exchange rate surpassing 1,483.2 won and the 10-year US Treasury yield recording 4.136%.

Epoch View: Investment Implications

The current market presents a scenario where cost-push inflation caused by geopolitical crises and an earnings-driven market led by AI technological innovation collide head-on. The record-breaking rally in the domestic stock market the previous day confirmed the market's downward rigidity, but a short-term correction is inevitable today due to the reflection of the New York stock market's decline and the surge in the exchange rate.

At this juncture, a strategy of compressing the portfolio into stocks with thoroughly verified earnings fundamentals is effective, rather than fluctuating with macroeconomic variables. Within the semiconductor sector, this should be taken as an opportunity to expand weightings in key companies of the HBM and eSSD supply chains, and it is reasonable to utilize the energy sector as a strategic alternative to diversify geopolitical risks. Depending on the results of the US February employment report scheduled to be released tonight, the market's interpretation of the interest rate path may change, so it is advisable to concurrently maintain conservative risk management until the market closes while capturing bargain hunting opportunities in leading sectors.

This content was generated through News Epoch's proprietary AI algorithm, which tracks and analyzes public data from major domestic securities firms' research centers in real time. It is an objective summary based on collected data and does not constitute an investment solicitation or recommendation for specific stocks.