[R&E] The Era of Samsung Electronics' 229 Trillion Won Operating Profit Begins... 'Energy & Defense' Earnings-Driven Market Intensifies Amid Oil Passing $100

[R&E: Research & Epoch]

This is News Epoch's signature report, analyzing vast market data to shed light on a new era of investment.

Market Overview: Key Indicators and Trends

Geopolitical risks stemming from Iran's declaration to maintain its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz have struck the New York stock market. On the previous trading day, major US indices closed lower across the board, including the NASDAQ (-1.78%) and the S&P 500 (-1.52%), as concerns over a reignition of inflation due to surging oil prices coincided with issues surrounding redemption limits on private credit funds. In particular, the hardline message from Iran's supreme leader pushed Brent crude up to $100.46 per barrel, stimulating market fear.

These external adverse factors were fully reflected in the domestic stock market on the previous trading day. The KOSPI closed at 5,583.25, down 0.48% from the previous day, but the KOSDAQ showed a contrasting trend by rising 1.02% to 1,148.40, driven by individual favorable factors in the semiconductor and bio sectors. In today's foreign exchange market, as the offshore exchange rate is expected to start higher in the 1,492 won range, increased volatility in foreign supply and demand due to the weakness of the won is inevitable. However, the accelerating trend of corporate treasury stock cancellations following the passage of the 3rd amendment to the Commercial Act is expected to act as a key mechanism for securing downward rigidity.

Key Industry Issues and Insights

The semiconductor sector is leading the market, driven by overwhelming earnings forecasts spearheaded by Samsung Electronics (KRX: 005930). The annual operating profit forecast for Samsung Electronics in 2026 has been revised upward to 229 trillion won, and its operating profit for the upcoming first quarter is also certain to reach 38 trillion won. This is the result of rising memory prices and the materialization of HBM4 supply, with analysis suggesting that resources for shareholder returns alone will amount to 92.5 trillion won. Benefits from the expansion of artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure are also materializing. Acryl has successfully turned a profit by securing a 1 trillion won order opportunity based on optimization solutions following the introduction of 260,000 NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) GPUs.

In the mobility industry, attention should be paid to the future strategy of Kia (KRX: 000270). With strategies for autonomous driving and humanoid (Atlas) mass production scheduled to be announced at the Investor Day in April, it is showing an aggressive move by setting a sales target of 920,000 units in the US market. On the other hand, the energy and infrastructure sectors appear to be turning the Middle East-induced supply chain crisis into an opportunity. Due to geopolitical instability, the tanker freight index has skyrocketed by 408% compared to the beginning of the year, concentrating net foreign buying on shipbuilding stocks, while the defense sector, including LIG Nex1 (KRX: 079550) and Victek (KRX: 065450), is evaluated to have entered a period of structural growth based on surging order backlogs.

Market Signals

• Energy Inflation Fear: Acceleration of supply chain restructuring is highly likely as Iran-induced risks push Brent crude past $100 and cause the tanker freight index to skyrocket by 408%.

• Semiconductor Super-Gap Earnings: Upward revision of Samsung Electronics' 2026 operating profit to 229 trillion won and the materialization of benefits for Acryl's AX infrastructure based on 260,000 NVIDIA GPUs.

• Paradigm Shift in Shareholder Returns: Following the passage of the Commercial Act amendment, massive treasury stock cancellation disclosures by companies like Samsung Electronics (16.4 trillion won) and SK (5.2 trillion won) are emerging as the new fundamental value of the market.

Epoch View: Investment Implications

Amid macroeconomic uncertainties such as geopolitical crises and high oil prices, the center of gravity in the market is thoroughly shifting toward 'confirmed earnings' and 'policy beneficiaries'. Although cost pressures from surging oil prices are spreading across all industries, the relative superiority of companies with monopolistic positions that can pass these costs onto prices, or strategic asset sectors such as defense and energy, is analyzed to become even more solid.

In particular, the era of a 300,000 won target price for Samsung Electronics is not mere expectation, but a rational diagnosis based on qualitative changes in memory market conditions and astronomical resources for shareholder returns. In addition, as corporate governance improvements such as the mandatory cancellation of treasury stocks lead to substantive reevaluations of corporate value, a selective approach to stock groups with excellent asset values, such as DI Dongil (KRX: 001530) and PHA (KRX: 043370), is an effective strategy.

This content was generated through News Epoch's proprietary AI algorithm, which tracks and analyzes public data from research centers of major domestic securities firms in real time. It is an objective summary based on collected data and does not constitute a solicitation or recommendation to invest in any specific stock.