[R&E] Easing Middle East Tensions and 231% Explosion in Semiconductor Exports, Prospect of Stock Market Rebound Prelude Amid Exchange Rate Breaking 1,509 KRW

[R&E: Research & Epoch]

This is News Epoch's signature report that analyzes vast market data to project a new era of investment.

Market Overview: Key Indicators and Trends

The New York stock market successfully rebounded across the board the previous day, driven by a temporary retreat in geopolitical risks and easing inflation concerns. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) rose 1.38% to 46,208.47p, and the NASDAQ Composite (IXIC) also closed 1.38% higher at 21,946.76p with an influx of buying centered on technology stocks. Former President Donald Trump's remarks on a 5-day suspension of an attack on Iran quickly calmed the market's fear, which led to a 10.28% plunge ($88.13) in West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices, stimulating investor preference for risky assets.

On the other hand, the domestic stock market experienced a sell-off amid extreme volatility on the previous trading day. The KOSPI plummeted 6.49% to 5,405.75, and the KOSDAQ fell 5.56% to 1,096.89, triggering the sixth sell sidecar of the year. The market exposed the worst supply and demand imbalance since the financial crisis, with foreigners net selling more than 5 trillion KRW in the spot and futures markets, and the USD-KRW exchange rate soaring to 1,517.8 KRW. Today, however, the domestic stock market is expected to stage a strong rebound recovering the previous day's excessive drop, in line with the warmth from the New York stock market and the forecasted 19.0 KRW lower start in the offshore Non-Deliverable Forward (NDF) market.

Key Industry Issues and Insights

The semiconductor sector proved the robustness of its business conditions through performance indicators that overwhelmed external macroeconomic uncertainties. According to provisional tallies from March 1 to 20, the memory semiconductor export value surged 231.0% year-on-year to 11.45 billion USD. In particular, the fact that the DRAM unit price rose 289.8%, driving the export value of 5.17 billion USD, proves that profitability improvements centered on high-value-added products such as High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) have reached a peak. The fact that LEENO Industrial (058470) raised its target stock price to 130,000 KRW and forecasted a 43% growth in operating profit in 2025 also suggests that the structural growth of the semiconductor test socket market has gotten on track.

In the IT parts and electronics industry, advanced facility investment has emerged as a key variable for future performance. Doosan (000150) Electro-Materials BG consolidated its market dominance by executing facility investments worth about 531.5 billion KRW by 2027 to respond to the demand for high-end copper clad laminates (CCL) bound for NVIDIA in North America. In the case of the automobile sector, there are concerns over a disruption in parts supply and demand due to a voluntary recall of 408,942 units by Hyundai Motor (005380) and Kia (000270) and a fire at a partner company, but the strategy to strengthen Genesis's GV90 and hybrid lineups is supporting the lower bound of corporate value. In the entertainment field, despite a new release by BTS under HYBE (352820) setting an all-time box office record with 3.982 million copies sold on the first day, a selective approach is essential as a gap between performance and stock price is appearing, with the stock price plunging 15.55% due to controversies related to performances.

Market Signals

• Explosion of Memory Semiconductor Exports: Memory export value from March 1 to 20 increased by 231.0% year-on-year, and in particular, the NAND flash unit price soared by 335.2%, proving the sustainability of the semiconductor super cycle.

• Easing of Energy and Geopolitical Risks: The WTI oil price fell 10.28% compared to the previous day, and the incoming signal of easing geopolitical tensions acts as a direct factor lowering the burden of domestic import prices.

• Expansion of K-Pop's Global Influence: The physical album export value in February increased by 128.9% year-on-year to 46.35 million USD, breaking the all-time record and indicating that the fundamental strength of the entertainment sector has been reinforced.

Epoch View: Investment Implications

It is judged that the geopolitical risks originating from the Middle East and the high exchange rate pressure that shook the domestic stock market have passed their peak. The previous day's sharp drop is a product of an oversold section created by psychological fear and supply-demand concentration, rather than a damage to fundamental strength. In particular, the strong profit growth trend confirmed in the semiconductor export data is a key driver securing the downward rigidity of the index. At this point, it is effective to move away from the noise of the macroeconomy and focus on the momentum of individual industries, such as the growth potential of FC-BGA for AI accelerators of Samsung Electro-Mechanics (009150) or the LCB84 clinical results of LigaChem Biosciences (141080). It is a time when the density of the portfolio must be increased around sectors proven by numbers, rather than being buried in fear.

This content was generated through News Epoch's dedicated AI algorithm that tracks and analyzes public data from research centers of major domestic securities firms in real-time. It is an objective summary based on collected data and does not constitute a solicitation or recommendation to invest in any specific stock.