[R&E] Semiconductor Exports Surge 261%, Domestic Stock Market Breaks All-Time High... Middle East Oil Price Risk Escalates

[R&E: Research & Epoch]

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Global Market Brief

The New York stock market closed lower, with the Dow Jones index falling 550 points. This was driven by an overall rise in Treasury yields, including the US 30-year Treasury yield exceeding 5.0%. This suggests the possibility of additional interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed). According to the CME FedWatch, the probability of a rate hike in December surged from the previous 9.3% to 24.6%, and the probability of a rate hike in March 2027 rose to 55.3%, reflecting market concerns. Upward pressure on interest rates is a direct cause of dampening investor sentiment in the stock market, going beyond a burden on the bond market.

International oil prices are also recording a steep upward trend. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil exceeded $106 per barrel, and Brent crude topped $114. As geopolitical instability in the Middle East intensifies, concerns that the suspension of vessel traffic in the Strait of Hormuz could be prolonged support the possibility of supply disruptions. The fact that OPEC+ announced a production cut of 188,000 barrels per day at a meeting excluding the United Arab Emirates also heightened supply wariness. The surge in oil prices is a major risk that will aggravate global inflation pressure and prolong the central bank's tightening stance. In contrast, Asian stock markets showed opposing trends, with Taiwan's Taiex index and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index rising 3.7% and 1.8%, respectively.

Domestic Market Summary

The domestic stock market broke its all-time high as the KOSPI rose 5.12% to 6,936.99pt, driven by explosive strength in the semiconductor sector. The KOSDAQ also showed a 1.79% upward trend, recording 1,213.74pt. In particular, large-cap semiconductor stocks such as Samsung Electronics (KOSPI: 005930), SK Hynix (KOSPI: 000660), SK Square (KOSPI: 402340) led the market, driving 76% of the KOSPI index gains. The dollar-won exchange rate closed at 1,473.6 won, but vigilance against volatility remains as it rose to 1,478.40 won in the night market. The strength of the domestic stock market is the result of the global tech stock rally intertwining with expectations of an improvement in the memory semiconductor industry.

Key Industry Issues and Insights

In April 2026, domestic memory semiconductor exports overwhelmed market expectations, recording $20.82842 billion, a 261.5% surge compared to the previous year. DRAM export value was $9.24767 billion, a 339.7% increase year-on-year, and unit prices also surged by 324.3%. This is the result of exploding demand for high-performance products such as high bandwidth memory (HBM) due to the acceleration of the artificial intelligence (AI) era. NAND flash exports also recorded $1.67347 billion, up 288.9% from the previous year. The unrivaled position within this global AI supply chain is the background behind SK Hynix surpassing 1,000 trillion won in market capitalization and Samsung Electronics renewing its all-time high.

The chemical and oil refining sectors experienced mixed fortunes due to oil price risks. LG Chem (KOSPI: 051910) continued its slump in the chemical division, recording an operating loss of 49.7 billion won in the first quarter, but the oil refining division laid the foundation for a rebound with improved complex refining margins. The Singapore complex refining margin soared to $30.55 per barrel in early May, contributing to the expansion of refiners' margins. However, there is a strong concern that the rise in oil prices will aggravate the cost burden of the chemical sector, thereby deepening profitability imbalances.

The construction sector shows a distinct earnings turnaround. GS E&C (KOSPI: 006360) recorded an operating profit of 73.5 billion won in the first quarter, and DL E&C (KOSPI: 375500) achieved an operating profit of 157.4 billion won, a 94.3% growth year-on-year. This figure reflects the recovery of the housing market and expectations for winning overseas projects, making the analysis that the construction economy is passing through the bottom highly convincing.

The auto parts sector is experiencing gaps based on technological prowess amidst the transition to electrification. Hanon Systems (KOSPI: 018880) recorded an operating profit of 97.2 billion won in the first quarter, surging 361% year-on-year due to an increase in demand for thermal management systems for electric vehicles. On the other hand, SNT MOTIVE (KOSPI: 064960) showed an opposing trend as its operating profit slightly decreased. Amid uncertainties in downstream industries, such as a decline in Ford's sales volume, a reorganization centered on companies possessing core technologies is expected to accelerate.

In the pharmaceutical and bio industry, obesity treatments are changing the landscape of the market. According to Deloitte, the proportion of obesity treatment (GLP-1) assets in late-stage clinical pipelines rose to 25%, surpassing the oncology field. The launch of oral treatments by Novo Nordisk and expectations for new drugs from Eli Lilly have triggered a revaluation by investors, and the R&D capabilities of the pharmaceutical industry are rapidly shifting toward the obesity market.

Market Signals

• Explosive Memory Semiconductor Exports: April 2026 export value exceeded $20.8 billion, a 261.5% increase year-on-year.

• Domestic Stock Market Hits All-Time High: KOSPI recorded 6,936.99pt, surging 5.12% in a single day.

• Surge in Energy Prices: WTI surpassed $106 and Brent crude $114, elevating supply risks.

• Concerns Over Prolonged Tightening: Probability of US interest rate hike in March 2027 rose to 55.3%.

• Construction Industry Recovery Trend: DL E&C first-quarter operating profit grew 94.3% year-on-year.

Epoch View: Investment Implications

The domestic stock market breaking its all-time high is the result of the rapid growth of semiconductor exports and the proven AI competitiveness of Korean companies. However, oil price instability stemming from the Middle East and global upward pressure on interest rates are variables that sustain macroeconomic uncertainty. The current market is in a phase where powerful growth drivers and macro risks coexist. As performance differentiation by sector is becoming distinctly apparent, a strategy focusing on companies that have secured core technological prowess and earnings visibility to withstand the macroeconomic waves is essential.

This content was generated through News Epoch's proprietary AI algorithm, which analyzes public data from major domestic securities firm research centers and global financial media in real time. We state that this is not an investment solicitation or recommendation for any specific stock.