[R&E] KOSPI Hits All-Time High, Semiconductor Exports Surge 240% on Expectations for Samsung Electronics' HBM4E Sample Shipment

[R&E: Research & Epoch] This is News Epoch's signature report that provides a prospect into a new era of investment by comprehensively analyzing global financial data and domestic securities firm research.

Global Market Brief

On the previous trading day (Mon, 06/01), the New York stock market closed higher, driven by strong U.S. manufacturing indicators and Nvidia's AI technology announcement. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.09%, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indices also climbed 0.26% and 0.42%, respectively. In particular, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index advanced 1.06%, revealing the strength of the semiconductor sector. This was due to the U.S. Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for May recording 54.0, exceeding market expectations (53.0), while the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI also marked 55.1, the highest level since May 2022, thereby proving the solid growth trend of the U.S. economy.

Meanwhile, the crude oil market fluctuated significantly due to geopolitical anxieties. The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil recorded $92.2, up 5.5% from the previous day. This was influenced by Iran's declaration to halt ceasefire negotiations with the U.S. and its announcement to maintain the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, amid a plunge of over 40% in the number of passages through the Strait of Hormuz compared to the previous week and a sharp decline in cargo volumes from the Gulf. The rise in oil prices exerts pressure on the global supply chain and acts as a factor heightening inflation pressure. The dollar index rose 0.26pt to record 99.2pt, continuing the dollar's strength, and the yen/dollar exchange rate rose 0.4 yen from the previous day to 159.7 yen, sustaining the yen's weakness. The fact that the weakness persists despite the Japanese government's one-month yen-buying intervention amounting to 11.7 trillion yen suggests structural changes in the market.

Domestic Market Overview

On the previous trading day (Mon, 06/01), the domestic stock market exhibited extreme divergence. The KOSPI index rose 3.68% to 8,788.38pt, breaking its all-time high. Conversely, the KOSDAQ index fell 2.30% to record 1,050.03pt, continuing its downward trend for four consecutive trading days. Despite foreign investors continuing their net selling on the KOSPI, the simultaneous buying by retail and institutional investors drove the market. In particular, large-cap stocks related to the AI value chain showed strength, leading the KOSPI's rise.

From May to the present, the KOSPI large-cap index has surged by a staggering 42.3%, while the mid-cap index and small-cap index have fallen by 6.7% and 14.0% respectively, revealing an intensifying market polarization. On the previous trading day, the won/dollar exchange rate closed at 1,514.9 won, up 10.1 won, and attempted to approach 1,520 won at one point during intraday trading, showing that a high level of exchange rate risk persists in the domestic market. Domestic treasury bond yields saw both 3-year and 10-year notes rise by 14bp and 15bp respectively compared to the previous month, continuing the bearish trend in the bond market.

Key Industry Issues and Insights

Domestic semiconductor export value in May reached $24.95056 billion, up 240.0% year-on-year. This is an increase of 19.8% even compared to the previous month, showing that the proportion semiconductors take up in total exports is rapidly expanding. In particular, DRAM export value was $11.42803 billion, increasing by 409.1% year-on-year, and the export unit price also rose by 453.2% year-on-year, proving the growth in demand for high value-added memory. Flash memory and MCP exports also increased by 206.8% and 105.4%, respectively, continuing a robust trend. The core driver of such favorable export performance is the surge in demand for high-performance memory semiconductors driven by artificial intelligence (AI) technological innovation.

On the previous trading day, Samsung Electronics (KOSPI: 005930) rose 9.3% and its preferred shares surged 14.3%, setting a record by surpassing an intraday market capitalization of 2,000 trillion won. SK Hynix (KOSPI: 000660) also rose by 2.7%. The news that Samsung Electronics shipped its High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) 4E sample for the first time had a positive impact on the market. Samsung Electronics' estimated Q2 semiconductor division revenue is analyzed to be 118.1 trillion won (a 313.1% increase year-on-year), with an estimated operating profit of 84.7 trillion won (a 21931.6% increase year-on-year). In addition, while an overweight opinion is maintained for the domestic memory semiconductor sector including SK Hynix, the forecast that HBM prices will increase by more than 50% in 2027 suggests the possibility of structural profitability improvements for domestic semiconductor companies. This corroborates that the expansion of the global AI ecosystem serves as a core driver to pull demand for high value-added products from domestic semiconductor companies and strengthen their technological leadership.

In contrast, the secondary battery industry has entered a short-term correction phase. Total secondary battery export value for May was $550 million, dropping 23.2% compared to the previous month, and cathode material export value also fell by 19.7% month-on-month to $310 million. The export weight of cathode materials decreased by 15% year-on-year and 22% month-on-month. In particular, the import weight of precursors decreased by 44% year-on-year and 13% month-on-month, recording a five-year low, and the import weight of lithium hydroxide also fell by 37% year-on-year and 58% month-on-month. This is interpreted as the combined result of a slowdown in global electric vehicle demand and falling raw material prices. The short-term slump in the secondary battery industry aggravates the earnings burden on related domestic companies and acts as a pressure for structural adjustment across the entire industry.

In the pharmaceutical/bio sector, a series of positive technology export news continued. Hanmi Pharmaceutical (KOSPI: 128940) rose 9.78% on the previous trading day, successfully exporting a 1.8 trillion won ($1.26 billion) bio-new drug technology to Eli Lilly. Oscotec (KOSDAQ: 039200) achieved a 960 billion won technology export to Agios Pharmaceuticals in the U.S. This demonstrates that the research and development capabilities of domestic bio companies are being recognized by global pharmaceutical companies. It is analyzed that this will not only increase the value of new drug pipelines but also have a positive impact on the external growth and investment revitalization of the domestic bio industry.

The financial sector is experiencing expanded volatility in its Net Interest Spread (NIS). The outstanding bank NIS in April was 2.28%, up 1bp from the previous month. Total loans increased by 12.8 trillion won month-on-month, but total deposits decreased by 6.8 trillion won, revealing liquidity pressure. The new NIS fell by 10bp from the previous month to 1.28%, while new deposit rates rose by 10bp month-on-month to 2.92%, suggesting the possibility of Net Interest Margin (NIM) deterioration. However, the share of low-cost deposits stood at 39%, increasing by 1.5%p year-on-year, providing a partial defensive shield. This reveals that the burden of profitability management in the banking sector is intensifying in an environment where expectations for interest rate cuts are weakening.

Market Signals

• Increase in Domestic Stock Market Trading Value: The daily average trading value of the domestic stock market in May reached 106.2 trillion won, increasing by 56.6% compared to the previous month and marking an all-time high.

• Persistence of Exchange Rate Instability: On the previous trading day, the won/dollar exchange rate was 1,514.9 won, up 10.1 won, and approached 1,520 won during intraday trading, exposing the possibility of expanded short-term volatility.

• Rise in International Oil Prices: Due to geopolitical risks originating from Iran, the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil recorded $92.2, up 5.5% from the previous day, acting as an upward pressure on inflation.

• U.S. Manufacturing Boom: The U.S. ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for May came in at 54.0, exceeding market expectations (53.0) and proving a solid economic growth trend.

• Intensifying KOSDAQ Divergence: Since May, the KOSDAQ index has dropped 11.9%, showing a stark contrast with the 42.3% surge in the KOSPI large-cap index.

Epoch View: Investment Implications

The increase in overall market liquidity and the distinct earnings momentum of specific sectors (semiconductors, pharmaceuticals/bio) led to the KOSPI breaking its all-time high on the previous trading day. In particular, the robust exports and strengthened technological prowess of domestic semiconductor companies, bolstered by the growth of the AI industry, are establishing themselves as new growth engines. However, the marginalization of the KOSDAQ market and the short-term slump in the secondary battery industry show that polarization in the domestic stock market is deepening. The rise in international oil prices due to global supply chain instability, the high level of the won/dollar exchange rate, and the possibility of deteriorating Net Interest Margins (NIM) in the banking sector act as downward pressures. For short-term sector-specific performance to lead to the solidity of the entire market, securing even growth drivers and managing risks are critical at this juncture.

This content was generated through News Epoch's proprietary AI algorithm, which tracks and analyzes public data from major domestic securities firm research centers and global financial media in real-time. We clarify that this is an objective summary based on collected data and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for any specific stock.