[R&E] KOSPI Surges 5.42% While KOSDAQ Drops 2.36%, Driven by SK Hynix's US Listing Push and Improved Semiconductor Supply-Demand

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Global Market Brief

The New York stock market closed mixed as strong earnings momentum in the semiconductor sector clashed with valuation burdens in large-cap tech stocks. As of the close on Thursday, June 25, 2026, the S&P 500 index recorded 7357.49p, down -0.01% from the previous day, and the Nasdaq index fell -0.46% to 25358.6p. On the other hand, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed +0.14% higher at 51920.62p. The small-cap-heavy Russell 2000 index also rose +0.71% to 3007.86.

The market's core driver was the strong profit-generating capability of the semiconductor industry. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose +3.59% to 13940.87. This is the result of an earnings surprise achieved by Micron, a leading US memory semiconductor company, which recorded third-quarter revenue of $41.4 billion (market consensus of $35.5 billion) and a gross margin of 84.9% (consensus of 81.7%). The revenue guidance for the next quarter was also presented at $50 billion, significantly exceeding the consensus ($43.5 billion), causing Micron's stock price to surge +15.74%. Equipment and materials companies such as SanDisk (+21.97%) and Applied Materials (+13.4%) rose alongside it. In contrast, Apple (-6.12%) saw its stock price drop significantly after CEO Tim Cook announced that the company would implement product price increases in response to rising memory and component costs, while Microsoft (-3.5%) also fell, suppressing the tech-heavy index's rise.

Macroeconomic indicators were tallied at a level that supports the monetary policy flexibility of the Federal Reserve (Fed). The US core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for May rose 3.4% year-over-year, in line with market expectations (3.4%), and increased 0.3% month-over-month. Initial jobless claims stood at 215K, coming in below the previous week and expectations (225K), proving a solid employment environment. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note remained flat at 4.3922%, while the 2-year note yield fell -2.3bp from the previous day to 4.1229%. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures closed at $71.92 per barrel, up +2.25% from the previous day. This suggests that a global capital portfolio reallocation is underway from the large-cap tech stock monopoly to the earnings-based manufacturing and semiconductor sectors.

Domestic Market Summary

The turnaround signal in the global semiconductor industry led to extreme supply and demand concentration and an index polarization phenomenon in the domestic stock market. On Thursday, June 25, 2026, the KOSPI index closed with an increase of +5.42% compared to the previous day. The KOSPI showed strong momentum, recording a cumulative +8.9% increase over two days. On the other hand, the KOSDAQ index dropped -2.36%, falling below the 900 mark.

Along with the strong performance of US memory semiconductors, the massive capital raising plan of SK Hynix stimulated foreign buying in KOSPI large-cap stocks. SK Hynix confirmed that it will list American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) on the US Nasdaq market on July 10, and specified its plan to issue new shares worth 45 trillion won through this. Driven by expectations of global capital inflows and its prominent dominance in the HBM market, SK Hynix's stock price surged 12% from the previous day. The large-cap-oriented KOSPI led the index rise as the semiconductor sector jumped +14.2% over two trading days.

In contrast, the KOSDAQ market took the full brunt of the supply and demand outflow. In particular, a massive sell-off for profit-taking occurred in the pharmaceutical and biotech sectors, which had previously led the KOSDAQ rally, causing the KOSDAQ pharmaceutical sector to fall -3.13%. Analysts say that the extreme concentration of supply and demand into KOSPI large-cap semiconductor stocks caused a weakening of the overall stamina of the KOSDAQ market. In the Seoul foreign exchange market, the USD/KRW exchange rate recorded 1,544.7 won, an increase from the previous day, and the offshore 1-month NDF exchange rate on Friday, June 26, 2026, is poised to start at around 1,544.79 won. Despite the trend of a weaker Korean won, the profit improvement of the global semiconductor value chain is overwhelming exchange rate risks, creating an environment favorable for foreign capital's net buying of Korean stocks.

Key Industry Issues and Insights

1. Semiconductors: Entry into a Seller's Market and Valuation Re-rating Driven by SK Hynix's Nasdaq Listing

Numbers have proven that the dominance in the global memory market has completely turned into a seller's market. The next quarter revenue guidance of $50 billion presented by Micron is nearly 15% higher than the previous consensus of $43.5 billion. This proves that the upward trend in the selling prices of HBM and high-capacity DRAM used in smartphones and data centers is proceeding much more steeply than expected.

In addition, SK Hynix's decision to list ADRs on Nasdaq on July 10 and its push to issue 45 trillion won in new shares have provided an opportunity to elevate the capital raising channels of Korean semiconductor companies to a global level. The dominant analysis is that it has laid the foundation for resolving the Korea Discount by allowing global investors to directly acquire stakes in SK Hynix in the US market without going through the Korean exchange. The +14.2% rally in the semiconductor sector over two trading days can be seen as the starting point of a structural re-rating triggered by the combination of an industry turnaround and the advancement of the capital market.

2. Pharmaceuticals and Biotech: Short-term Supply and Demand Distortion in Domestic Biotech Amid Global M&A Tailwinds

In the global healthcare industry, massive mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and capital expenditure tracks are flowing robustly. A representative event is Germany's Merck KGaA deciding to suddenly acquire Bio-Techne, a US biotech tools company, for $11.3 billion ($73 per share, applying a 24% management premium), sending its stock price soaring by +20.08%. The domestic bellwether Samsung Biologics also announced the establishment of a European subsidiary within the third quarter of 2026, and confirmed a long-term roadmap to expand its total global production capacity to 1,385,000 liters by completing its second Bio Campus by 2032.

However, the -3.13% drop in the KOSDAQ pharmaceutical sector in the domestic stock market on the 25th was due to thorough supply and demand polarization rather than damage to fundamentals. This is because institutional and foreign funds seeking to participate in the US semiconductor rally rapidly left the KOSDAQ pharmaceutical and biotech sector and moved to KOSPI large-cap semiconductor stocks. Although stock prices underwent a correction due to short-term supply and demand imbalances, successful global clinical cases and facility expansion capabilities suggest that the long-term profit forecasts of domestic biotech companies have not been undermined.

3. Shareholder Returns and Holding Companies: Synchronization of Hyundai G.F. Holdings' Share Cancellation and Subsidiary Value Growth

As the government's Value-up Program operates in full swing, active shareholder return policies of holding companies and revaluation of subsidiaries' asset values are occurring simultaneously. The holding company Hyundai G.F. Holdings saw its stock price rise +7.9% on the 25th. As the stock price of its subsidiary, Hyundai Department Store, has surged a staggering 146.8% since late March, the net asset value (NAV) proportion of Hyundai Department Store held by Hyundai G.F. Holdings skyrocketed from 38.7% to 58.4%. The total NAV of the holding company also rapidly expanded by 56.0%, from 1.6 trillion won to 2.5 trillion won.

This growth in asset value is supporting the stock price in combination with the holding company's own strong shareholder return policy. Hyundai G.F. Holdings announced a plan to purchase and cancel treasury shares totaling 100 billion won this year. It has already completed the purchase of 50 billion won worth of treasury shares (3.42 million shares, 2.2% stake) from February to April, and plans to purchase an additional 50 billion won worth of treasury shares after August. Accordingly, the estimated dividend per share for 2026 is 441 won (dividend yield of 3.0%), and the total annual shareholder return rate is expected to reach 7.4%. This indicates that the profit improvement of the subsidiary and the holding company's shareholder-friendly capital allocation have entered a virtuous cycle.

Market Signals

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rises 3.59%: US Micron's third-quarter revenue of $41.4 billion and its surprise guidance announcement stimulated investment sentiment across the global semiconductor value chain.

SK Hynix to list on US Nasdaq and issue 45 trillion won in new shares: The decision to list US ADRs scheduled for July 10 and the large-scale capitalization plan induced the influx of foreign supply and demand into the KOSPI.

Hyundai G.F. Holdings' NAV increases by 56.0%: Boosted by the 146.8% surge in the stock price of its subsidiary Hyundai Department Store, the holding company's NAV increased to 2.5 trillion won, making the achievement of a 7.4% shareholder return rate more likely.

US core PCE for May records 3.4% YoY: The inflation rate met market expectations exactly, partially alleviating market concerns about the Fed's interest rate cut path.

Singapore complex refining margin records $12.19 per barrel: Margin levels significantly exceeding the historical average margin ($6.0) and the industry breakeven point ($4.5) continued, representing the solid fundamentals of the oil refining sector.

Epoch View: Investment Implications

The buzzword in the global financial market is no longer ambiguous growth potential but is narrowed down to 'certain profit-generating capability and ability to execute shareholder returns'. Despite concerns about the prolonged high interest rate environment in the US, large-cap manufacturing stocks that have secured strong technological barriers are passing cost burdens onto consumers through price increases, as evidenced by Micron's performance.

In this phase, companies like Hyundai G.F. Holdings, which raised its shareholder return rate to 7.4%, or SK Hynix, which is directly expanding its capital territory onto the global stage, function as leading stocks reallocating shareholder capital beyond being simple economically sensitive stocks. As revealed by the short-term plunge in the KOSDAQ market, the outflow of funds from sectors unsupported by fundamentals or alienated in terms of supply and demand is analyzed to become even more ruthless. Ultimately, a compressed portfolio centered on large-cap blue-chip stocks that maximize capital efficiency and prove shareholder value through actual cash flows and share buybacks is judged to be an effective solution to overcome uncertainty.

This content was created through News Epoch's proprietary AI algorithm, which tracks and analyzes public data from research centers of major domestic securities firms and global financial media in real time. We clarify that this is an objective summary based on collected data, and not a solicitation or recommendation to invest in any specific stock.