[R&E] KOSPI Closes 0.73% Higher, Cosmax Turns First Profit in US Amid Samsung Electronics Rebound and Record Semiconductor Exports

[R&E: Research & Epoch] This is News Epoch's signature report that integrates and analyzes global financial data and domestic securities firm research to offer a perspective on a new era of investment.

Global Market Brief

The New York stock market closed lower across the board the previous day, dragged down by weakness in large-cap tech stocks and hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials. The S&P 500 index fell 0.32% from the previous day to 7,728.20 points, and the tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite Index closed down 0.60% at 26,445.45 points. The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average also dropped 0.34%, settling at 53,791.85 points.

Cautionary monetary policy remarks from Fed officials spurred profit-taking, particularly in tech stocks. Fed Governor Lisa Cook hinted that further tightening cannot be ruled out unless a clear stabilization in inflation is confirmed, and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee also expressed caution, pointing to prices and the cost of living burden as the biggest problems facing the U.S. economy. However, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closed at 12,098.47 points, up 0.87% from the previous day, proving downward support for the semiconductor industry. International oil prices saw West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rise 1.30% from the previous day to $83.20 per barrel, crossing the $83 mark once again. U.S. Treasury yields took a breather, halting their steep upward trend, supported by expectations of progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations and solid treasury auctions, with the 10-year yield falling 1.8 bps to 4.688% and the 2-year yield dropping 2.7 bps to 4.214%.

Domestic Market Summary

Despite the downward pressure on tech stocks in the New York stock market, the domestic stock market continued a relief rally driven by strong buying from foreign and institutional investors. The previous day, the KOSPI index closed at 6,345.53 points, up 0.73% from the day before, and the KOSDAQ index also rose 0.39% to 857.84 points. The VKOSPI index, which represents the intraday volatility of the market, plummeted 11.3% from the previous day to 61.7 points, demonstrating that investors' fear sentiment has entered a stabilization phase.

In the Seoul foreign exchange market, the dollar-won exchange rate closed at 1,415.6 won, down 2.7 won from the previous day, slightly easing volatility pressure. In today's regular domestic market session, even while digesting U.S.-driven macro vigilance and upward pressure on international oil prices, it is analyzed that a distinct performance differentiation trend will unfold, centered on the K-beauty and semiconductor sectors, whose solid earnings strength and record increases in provisional semiconductor exports have been proven.

Key Industry Issues and Insights

Semiconductor & IT Infrastructure: Proof of HBM Production Capacity Amid Record High Export Amounts
South Korea's strong semiconductor exports, confirmed from early August, directly dispelled concerns about an industry peak-out. Provisional exports for August 1-10 amounted to $21.3 billion, growing 45.3% year-on-year. In particular, provisional semiconductor exports surged 155.4% year-on-year, accounting for 46.8% of total exports and breaking the all-time record. This suggests that the demand for High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), led by artificial intelligence (AI) server construction, remains robust within the global big tech supply chain.

Indeed, it is analyzed that Samsung Electronics' HBM operating profit in 2027 will reach 83 trillion won, a 315% increase year-on-year, and SK Hynix's HBM operating profit will reach 70 trillion won, a 138% increase. Global HBM production capacity is also expected to continuously expand from 530K per month in 2026 to 790K per month in 2027. Moves to secure equity and invest in facilities to strengthen supply chain dominance have also materialized. Following the acquisition of a 14.19% stake in Kioxia by SK Hynix's special purpose company (SPC2), its subsidiary Solidigm resumed construction and facility investment at its Dalian Plant 2 in China. This is interpreted as a strategic move to solidify its dominance in the next-generation high-capacity NAND flash market.

Consumer Goods & Beauty: Overseas Expansion Beyond Domestic Limits, Proven by Earnings Surprises
The territorial expansion of K-beauty was proven by substantial profit indicators, driving qualitative growth across the cosmetic Original Design Manufacturing (ODM) value chain. Global ODM No.1 Cosmax(KOSPI: 192820) recorded consolidated second-quarter sales of 794.9 billion won and an operating profit of 73.7 billion won, growing 28% and 21% year-on-year respectively, beating the market consensus (69.6 billion won) by 6%. The U.S. subsidiary's sales surged 79% year-on-year, successfully turning a profit for the first time in history, and sales for the Chinese subsidiary also increased by 33%, achieving balanced growth across all global regions. Cosmecca Korea(KOSDAQ: 241710), which announced its earnings the previous day, also achieved its highest-ever quarterly performance with second-quarter sales of 226.1 billion won and an operating profit of 32.1 billion won (operating margin of 14.2%), while the domestic headquarters led the company-wide growth by recording sales of 178.8 billion won, a 62.6% surge, and an operating profit of 24.5 billion won, a 76.9% increase. Specialized cosmetics packaging manufacturer Pum-Tech Korea(KOSDAQ: 251970) also posted second-quarter sales of 116.8 billion won and an operating profit of 21.7 billion won, both up 11% year-on-year, breaking its quarterly performance record. This shows that the revitalization of overseas sales of K-beauty is triggering the external expansion and profitability enhancement of the entire raw and subsidiary materials manufacturing value chain.

Automotive & Mobility: Production Gap Risks from Union Strikes Amid Strong Hybrid Exports
Hyundai Motor Company(KOSPI: 005380) faces conflicting internal and external situations: robust hybrid (HEV) export trends centered on the North American market and production disruptions at domestic plants. While U.S. new car sales (SAAR) in July fell 1.4% year-on-year to 16.3 million units due to the slowdown in the global macro environment, the hybrid market share in the U.S. rose to 19.6%, up 2.9% points year-on-year. Supported by this HEV preference trend, Hyundai Motor Company's U.S. hybrid sales in July recorded 43,727 units, a 62% surge year-on-year.

On the other hand, the prolonged labor-management conflict at domestic plants is a core threat factor holding back performance growth. The Hyundai Motor Company union staged partial strikes and four Saturday overtime work refusals during July as it failed to narrow differences with management over wage increases and other issues. The resulting cumulative production disruption is estimated at about 42,510 units, and the scale of revenue disruption is calculated by the industry to be at least 1.8 trillion won or more. The management proposed an 89,000 won increase in basic pay, a 350% performance bonus plus 10 million won, and the payment of 15 shares of stock (equivalent to about 36.3 million won per person), but failed to reach an agreement. With the union predicting additional strikes starting on the 12th, concerns have grown that the profit strength secured by strong sales in the global market will be diluted by the production gap.

Market Signals

• Provisional Semiconductor Exports Hit All-Time High: Provisional semiconductor exports for August 1-10 surged 155.4% year-on-year, accounting for 46.8% of total exports.

• Cosmax Turns First Profit in the US: Cosmax exceeded consensus with consolidated Q2 sales of 794.9 billion won (+28% YoY) and operating profit of 73.7 billion won (+21% YoY), while its U.S. subsidiary succeeded in turning a profit for the first time in history.

• International Oil Prices Re-enter the $83 Mark: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil recorded $83.20 per barrel, up 1.30% from the previous day, stimulating inflation pressure once again.

• U.S. Treasury Yields Temporarily Lull: The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.688%, down 1.8 bps from the previous day, halting its steep upward trend and staying in a flat range.

Epoch View: Investment Implications

In an external environment where global interest rate volatility and inflation pressure from rising oil prices continue to weigh on the upside of the stock market, the surefire breakthrough for the domestic financial market lies in earnings and export fundamentals. In particular, the overwhelming surge in provisional semiconductor exports in early August and the earnings surprises of the K-beauty sector demonstrated robust fundamentals capable of defending against macro noise. However, production disruptions and labor-management conflict risks in some large manufacturing sectors, such as automobiles, are pointed out as internal factors undermining earnings visibility. Ultimately, as external uncertainty becomes entrenched, market supply and demand are bound to be compressed into export-driven blue-chip stocks that prove their numbers through solid quarterly earnings and global market share expansion, rather than temporary momentum chasing.

This content was generated by News Epoch's proprietary AI algorithm, which tracks and analyzes public data from major domestic securities firm research centers and global financial media in real time. It is an objective summary based on collected data, and it is clarified that this is not an investment solicitation or recommendation for specific stocks.